Bitcoin Price Could Gain Support as IBIT Hedging Eases: JPMorgan

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price could gain relative support if investors unwind IBIT hedges while retaining underlying Bitcoin exposure.
• Gold ETFs have recovered earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered roughly half, JPMorgan said.
• IBIT short interest and options positioning show heavier downside protection than comparable positioning in GLD.

Bitcoin price could receive more relative support than gold if investors reduce hedges around spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to JPMorgan.

Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed to heavier defensive positioning around BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust than around SPDR Gold Shares.

IBIT short interest remains close to its highest level of 2026, while GLD short interest is below its historical average.

That difference could become supportive for Bitcoin if investors remove downside protection while maintaining their underlying exposure.

Bitcoin Price Setup Reflects Heavy IBIT Hedging

JPMorgan’s argument focuses on how investors protect existing Bitcoin positions.

An investor can hold IBIT shares while simultaneously shorting the ETF or another Bitcoin-linked instrument.

That structure reduces downside exposure without requiring the investor to exit the underlying long position.

Investors can also purchase put options that increase in value when the ETF declines.

JPMorgan said both measures currently indicate greater defensive positioning around Bitcoin than gold.

IBIT short interest remains close to its highest level this year, according to the bank.

Exchange data independently show about 45.9 million IBIT shares were sold short as of Aug. 31, up nearly 24% from the previous reported period.

That represented about 3.5% of the public float.

Bitcoin Price Could Benefit From Short Covering

Heavy short interest can matter if sentiment improves.

A short seller must eventually buy back borrowed shares to close the position.

That buying can create additional demand if investors unwind hedges while continuing to hold their original Bitcoin ETF exposure.

JPMorgan therefore sees the elevated IBIT short position as a potential source of support relative to gold.

However, the effect is conditional.

If investors close both their short hedge and underlying long position, the net impact would differ.

Short covering also does not necessarily translate directly into equivalent spot Bitcoin purchases.

The same caution applies to options.

Reducing put protection may lead market makers to adjust their own hedges, but the resulting impact depends on strike prices, expiry dates and dealer positioning.

Lower put demand should therefore not be treated as equivalent to new ETF inflows.

Bitcoin ETF Demand Trails Gold Recovery

JPMorgan also highlighted a difference in fund flows.

Both Bitcoin and gold ETFs attracted demand after the Federal Reserve’s late-July meeting as investors returned to what the bank describes as the debasement trade.

The strategy generally involves holding scarce assets as protection against inflation, currency weakness or declining purchasing power.

Gold has historically served that role, while Bitcoin has increasingly entered similar institutional allocation discussions.

However, JPMorgan said gold ETF demand has recovered more completely.

Gold funds have now offset all the outflows recorded earlier in 2026.

Bitcoin ETF products have recovered only about half of their earlier losses.

That gives gold the stronger flow recovery so far.

IBIT Put-to-Call Ratio Signals More Protection

Options markets show a similar divergence.

JPMorgan said IBIT carries a higher put-to-call open-interest ratio than GLD.

A higher ratio can indicate greater demand for downside protection, although puts can also form part of more complex trading strategies.

Combined with elevated short interest, JPMorgan interprets the positioning as evidence that Bitcoin investors remain more defensive.

The bank described the Bitcoin backdrop as more skeptical than gold despite recent institutional inflows and elevated futures exposure.

That creates more room for defensive positions to be removed if sentiment improves.

GLD has less comparable short positioning to unwind because its short interest currently sits below its historical average.

Bitcoin ETFs Record Fresh September Outflows

Recent Bitcoin ETF flows remain volatile.

Farside Investors data show U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $159.9 million in net inflows on Sept. 14.

That reversed sharply the following day.

The funds posted approximately $450.4 million in net outflows on Sept. 15, their largest daily withdrawal since late June.

Fidelity’s FBTC lost $214.8 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT recorded $161.7 million in outflows.

Outflows continued on Sept. 16.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded another approximately $295.9 million in net withdrawals.

IBIT led with about $144.1 million in outflows, followed by ARKB at $84.4 million and FBTC at roughly $52.7 million.

$586M Figure Reflects Weekly Flow, Not One Day

SoSoValue’s broader weekly reading showed approximately $586.27 million in Bitcoin ETF net outflows through Sept. 16.

That number should not be described as the Sept. 16 daily flow.

The prior trading week also ended negatively.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $462.73 million in net withdrawals between Sept. 8 and Sept. 11, ending a three-week inflow streak.

Those figures show that institutional ETF demand has remained unstable despite stronger inflows during August.

Farside data recorded several large positive sessions early in September, including about $730.8 million on Sept. 3.

However, subsequent outflows erased part of that recovery.

Bitcoin ETF Recovery Followed Strong August Demand

The longer flow picture remains more constructive than the latest sessions alone suggest.

SoSoValue data cited in recent analysis indicate Bitcoin ETFs generated roughly $4.23 billion in net inflows between the weekly readings dated July 31 and Sept. 4.

That period was not uniformly positive.

It included a roughly $61.5 million weekly outflow shortly after the late-July Fed meeting and another approximately $389.7 million outflow during August.

The broader trend then weakened again in September.

The latest withdrawals explain why JPMorgan says Bitcoin ETF recovery still trails gold.

Rising Real Yields Weaken Debasement Trade

ETF positioning is only one part of JPMorgan’s outlook.

The bank said the debasement trade weakened over the past week as inflation-adjusted bond yields increased.

Higher real yields can reduce the relative appeal of assets such as gold and Bitcoin because investors can earn stronger inflation-adjusted returns from government debt.

The Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act also weighed on Bitcoin sentiment, according to JPMorgan.

The Senate failed to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed on Sept. 15 by a 49-50 vote.

That procedural result stalled the legislation rather than representing final rejection of the bill.

Macro conditions could therefore outweigh any support produced by hedge unwinding.

JPMorgan Previously Tracked $77K-$78K Mining Cost

JPMorgan has also used Bitcoin production costs as a separate valuation reference this year.

In February, the bank estimated Bitcoin’s production cost near $77,000 after mining difficulty declined.

The analysts described the figure as a potential soft support reference rather than a guaranteed floor.

By June, JPMorgan had revised the estimate to roughly $78,000 as mining economics continued to shift.

At the time, the bank estimated about 20% of miners were operating unprofitably.

Production costs vary with hashrate, energy costs, hardware efficiency and Bitcoin’s mining difficulty.

They therefore should not be treated as a fixed price floor.

Bitcoin Price Support Depends on Positioning Shift

JPMorgan’s latest Bitcoin-versus-gold argument ultimately depends on how investors unwind their protection.

If IBIT holders retain their underlying exposure while closing shorts or reducing put hedges, the resulting adjustment could provide relative support for Bitcoin.

That does not guarantee a Bitcoin price rally.

ETF outflows remain elevated, real yields have increased and the macro environment remains restrictive following the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16 rate hike.

Gold also retains the stronger ETF-flow recovery.

Still, the heavier defensive positioning around IBIT means Bitcoin has more hedges available to unwind if sentiment improves.

For JPMorgan, that positioning difference could give Bitcoin a relative advantage over gold even before new institutional allocations return.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. ETF positioning, options activity and analyst estimates do not guarantee future Bitcoin price performance.