Bitcoin Price Holds $76K as Goldman Sees October Fed Hike

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price remains near its August lows and the 4-hour 200-period MA and EMA.
• CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan said falling UTXOs in loss may reduce the probability of a renewed bear cycle.
• Goldman Sachs expects another 25-basis-point Fed hike in October, potentially lifting rates to 4.00%-4.25%.

Bitcoin price held above $76,000 after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points. BTC recovered from lows near $75,000 and traded around the mid-$76,000 region.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin remained near its August lows and around its 4-hour 200-period moving average and exponential moving average. He said the Fed decision and the CLARITY Act vote had been two of the main catalysts driving volatility over the previous week.

K33 Research also highlighted historically subdued Bitcoin activity. The firm said only about 3.8 million BTC had moved during the previous 180 days, one of the lowest readings on record. K33 interpreted the muted activity as a sign that fewer holders were moving coins and that selling pressure may be declining.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan separately said the share of Bitcoin UTXOs held at an unrealized loss had declined substantially. He argued that similar drops in previous cycles had been associated with transitions out of prolonged bearish phases.

Analyst Ali Martinez identified the Short-Term Holder Realized Price near $71,200 as a deeper support reference if Bitcoin experiences another selloff. That level represents the average onchain acquisition cost for recently active holders and should be treated as a reference area rather than guaranteed support.

Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates again at its October meeting. Another 25-basis-point increase would lift the target range from 3.75%-4.00% to 4.00%-4.25%.

Higher rates remain a potential headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets. However, much of the September hike had already been priced in before the meeting, helping explain Bitcoin’s relatively modest reaction.